ROI Breakdown of my Expert Corner Picks

Linfield lost the first leg of the Champions League qualification 0–1 away at Shamrock Rovers. This means that in the return leg at home, Linfield will need to play for a win, while Shamrock will most likely adopt a more passive, defensive approach. The longer the score remains tied, the more Linfield will need to take risks going forward. Already last season in the Conference League, Linfield showed that in similar situations, they were able to win many corners at home. Therefore, getting at least six corners at home against Shamrock Rovers seems quite likely.

Breidablik lost the first leg 0:1 but enters the return leg as clear favorite. They already had 6 corners away from home. Now playing at home with higher possession and attacking urgency, reaching at least 7 corners is likely.

Second leg in the battle for a place in the final. Auckland won the first leg against Melbourne Victory 1-0. The situation is therefore clear: a draw is enough for Auckland, while Melbourne must take a much more active part in the match. In the first leg, Melbourne already had significantly more corners than Auckland (9:5) due to trailing behind. Under these circumstances, this should also be possible in the second leg.

Clear situation in the second leg of the playoff semi-final. Melbourne City won the first leg 3-0 away at Western United. This all but guarantees a more conservative approach from the hosts. Western has nothing to lose and can throw everything forward. At odds of 2.32, I also have to back the guests to get more corners than the hosts in the end. Especially considering that Melbourne City has generally recorded a below-average number of corners at home this season (5.15), while Western has a top away average of 5.85 in this category.

Do-or-die match for Leganes on the final day of La Liga. Leganes must win at home against bottom-placed Real Valladolid. If Espanyol then loses or draws (Leganes won the head-to-head), they would actually stay up. The signs are clear: facing a very weak Valladolid side, Leganes will push forward with confidence and create numerous chances. Even though the stats don't necessarily support it, under these circumstances I expect at least 7 corners for the home side.

Perfect conditions for a high-odds pick: On the final matchday of the 2. Bundesliga, a draw is enough for FC Köln to secure direct promotion to the top flight. Kaiserslautern, on the other hand, only have a slim chance of reaching the play-off spot — and only if they beat Köln by a wide margin and Elversberg, Paderborn, and Düsseldorf all drop points. In other words: while Köln can afford to sit back and defend, the “Red Devils” will have to throw everything forward. Under these circumstances, it’s very possible the away side ends up with more corners than the hosts.

Braunschweig are in a must-win situation at home in their battle against relegation. A draw would leave them needing Münster to slip up, while a win could even see them leapfrog Greuther Fürth — provided Fürth lose to HSV. But none of that matters unless Braunschweig take all three points, otherwise the relegation play-off to the 3. Liga awaits. Nürnberg, on the other hand, have nothing left to play for. The Franconians have conceded a high number of corners in recent weeks, and that trend is likely to continue on Sunday afternoon.

Empoli must win on Sunday evening against already-relegated Monza. If they succeed, they could leapfrog Lecce and Venezia to escape the drop zone in Serie A. The scenario is clear: Empoli will go all out for the win. Monza did manage a surprising 2-1 victory at Udinese recently, so it’s not unthinkable that they even grab an early lead here. If that happens, Empoli could easily rack up 10+ team corners as they push for a comeback.

Exciting situation in Germany’s 3rd division: Rostock need to win by as many goals as possible against Hannover’s already-relegated second team. Despite their league position, the hosts regularly produce a high number of corners and can play freely, while Hansa are under pressure to force goals. Hannover’s home games average 12.00 corners this season, and Rostock’s away matches average 11.11. Ideal stats and circumstances to back a Total Over 11.5 corners — and the odds of 2.43 make it even more appealing.

For Heidenheim, this is a must-win game with full offensive focus. While their relegation play-off spot is secured, they still have a slim chance of staying up directly by overturning a 7-goal gap to Hoffenheim, who face Bayern. So even with a lead, Heidenheim will keep pushing forward. Statistically, 5 corners are expected from the hosts — but given the situation and Bremen having nothing at stake, 7 or more should be very realistic.

Final showdown for Champions League qualification. Both teams have to assume that Dortmund will do their job at home against Kiel. That means Frankfurt would qualify with a draw, while Freiburg must win. As a result, I expect a much more active Freiburg side against a likely deep-sitting and cautious Frankfurt. The longer the game stays level, the more Freiburg will have to take risks. At least six corners for the hosts seem very likely under these circumstances.

Must-win game for Farense on the final matchday at home against Santa Clara. A victory gives them a good chance to stay in Liga Portugal if AVS does not win. Santa Clara are solid defensively away from home and likely won’t concede early. Corner stats clearly favor the hosts — six team corners for Farense should be very realistic, especially if they have to go all-in late in the game.

Kiel, recently very convincing in the relegation battle, still have to play for a win to keep their chances of reaching the relegation play-off alive. Freiburg is a team that often plays defensively away from home. Their efficiency could lead to SCF taking the lead. At the latest, that would force Kiel to throw everything forward. But even without falling behind, Kiel’s current style of play and confidence should easily result in five corners or more.

A dream setup for plenty of corners from the visitors: both teams are fighting relegation. While Reims would secure safety with a draw, only a win will do for St. Etienne. A draw would leave them with only slim chances of making the play-offs, but a win could even open the door to direct survival. This means the game is likely to be dictated by ASSE — especially if Reims takes the lead. Six team corners for St. Etienne seem absolutely realistic.

Tottenham took the first leg 3-1, putting Bodo Glimt under pressure to deliver something special at home. The Norwegians will go all-in, and on their artificial turf, they have the quality to create chances—especially against a shaky Spurs defense. Bodo are strong on corners at home, and 8+ team corners looks very realistic here. I’m backing it with 7 units at odds of 3.00.

Bilbao lost the first leg 0-3 to Manchester United after an unfortunate first half. Despite missing the Williams brothers, I can’t see them giving up on the return leg—this is a rare chance to reach a European final in their own stadium. I expect Bilbao to be much more active throughout, while United can afford to sit back. Given the circumstances, 7+ corners for the Basques is very realistic. I'm staking 7 units at odds of 2.66.

A tip based purely on statistics... but the numbers are so compelling that I have to play it in relation to the odds. Djurgårdens IF has had three home games this season, recording 15, 5, and 7 corners respectively. AIK, in their away matches, have conceded 7, 10, and 4 corners. The visitors are also in good form, making an away lead more than realistic. Given these figures and circumstances, one must play the over 6.5 team corners for Djurgårdens IF at odds of 2.61.

Do-or-die match for VfL Bochum. The situation is simple: if Bochum lose in Heidenheim on Friday, they will be relegated from the Bundesliga. Even a draw would most likely seal their relegation. So what can we expect? At some point, Bochum will have to throw everything forward. Only an early lead for Bochum might allow them to manage the game more conservatively and attack less — but given their poor chance conversion and sluggish attacking play, this seems unlikely. Five corners for Bochum are absolutely realistic and easy to imagine in this scenario.

Similar to PSG, I also expect a cautious and energy-saving performance from Arsenal, as they will be looking to conserve strength for the second leg of their Champions League semi-final. There’s nothing at stake for the Gunners in this match, so their motivation against Bournemouth will likely be low. The visitors, on the other hand, are still in the race for European qualification. They are clearly fresher and should have no trouble earning five corners against a tired and probably passive Arsenal side.

For Waalwijk, the match at Groningen is almost a last chance to avoid direct relegation. A win would put them back within reach of the relegation play-off spot — but only three points will do. Accordingly, they are expected to play with intent; sitting back and hoping for a draw simply won't cut it given their league position. In recent weeks, RKC have shown more attacking courage and have regularly recorded five corners per match. That should be absolutely achievable here as well, especially against a Groningen side with nothing left to play for. The longer the game goes on, the more aggressively the visitors are likely to push forward.

The highest odds of the day – but definitely worth a shot. Inter are coming off a tough first leg against Barcelona, with the second leg just a few days away. Add to that a recent Coppa Italia fixture, and it's clear that Inter are physically stretched. Now they face Hellas Verona. The goal is obvious: take an early lead and then manage the game with as little effort as possible to keep their Scudetto hopes alive. Inter have the individual quality to score early.If they do, given the circumstances (energy-saving mode, Champions League on their minds), it’s entirely possible that Hellas Verona will end up with more corners than Inter. After all, the visitors are not yet completely safe from relegation and will fight for every point.

For me, this is a classic total over. Hamburg need points at home and average a massive 11.47 total corners per game at the Volksparkstadion. Karlsruhe also have to go for the win — a draw or a loss would make no difference in the promotion race. A cautious start seems unlikely. Once a team takes the lead, it should open up completely. Both sides are capable of producing or conceding a high number of corners. The last two head-to-head meetings had 14 and 13 corners. My pick: Over 10.5 Total Corners.

A match where both teams are still at risk of relegation. The pressure is especially on Nantes, who sit only four points above the drop zone before this round. Toulouse are still seven points clear of 16th place but have been in free fall. Given their form and the fact they just need to keep Nantes at a distance, the visitors would easily settle for a draw. It’s very likely that Toulouse will sit deep and focus on avoiding an early goal. Nantes, on the other hand, have to go for three points and should be full of confidence after their draw against PSG. The longer the match stays level, the more Nantes are expected to push forward and pin Toulouse back. In my opinion, the price on Over 5.5 Team Corners for Nantes is way too high. I have to take it.

Crucial match in the race for UCL qualification. Frankfurt currently have a four-point lead over fifth place, while Leipzig are three points behind Frankfurt and just one point ahead of fifth. The situation is pretty clear: Frankfurt would be more than happy with a draw, keeping Leipzig at bay and maintaining a strong position in the top four. Leipzig, on the other hand, can't really afford to settle for a point. If their rivals win, they could drop out of the Champions League spots... and they still have to face Bayern Munich. Because of that, it's expected that Leipzig will invest significantly more into the game than Frankfurt. As a result, it's very likely that RBL will end up with more corners than the hosts.

Levante (2nd, 66 pts) would be fine with a draw to keep 4th-placed Oviedo (59 pts) at bay. For Oviedo, it’s nearly their last chance to close the gap on the top two for direct promotions. That urgency should lead to a more attacking approach. Oviedo average 5.00 corners per home game, while Levante allow 5.56 away. Over 5.5 team corners for Oviedo looks realistic on these cirumstances.

Farense need a win in the battle against relegation. For Gil Vicente, a draw would be acceptable to keep Farense at a distance. Farense are a reliable corner team at home, but even away they average 4.20 corners per match. Given the must-win situation and the likelihood of full attacking effort late in the game, while the hosts don’t need to take risks, six corners for Farense are absolutely realistic.

Similar circumstances in the match between Cardiff and Oxford. Cardiff must win this game to keep their hopes of staying up alive. Oxford, on the other hand, could take a big step toward securing safety with a draw, as it would keep Cardiff at a distance. Cardiff are expected to be much more active and dominant than the visitors. Once again, if Cardiff don’t take an early lead, seven team corners for the Welsh side seem very likely.

Just like in Dortmund vs. Barcelona: 8/10 units on this one. Villa lost the first leg 3-1, which means they’ll have to attack throughout the match. PSG, on the other hand, will likely focus on counter-attacks and sit deep — anything else wouldn’t make much sense in this situation. Villa is expected to push forward for the full 90 minutes and will very likely earn at least six corners. Worth noting: PSG conceded 10 corners in regular time during their last second leg away at Anfield in the Round of 16.

I strongly expect Real to be in front at half-time against Alavés. After that, the Spanish giants might switch to management mode — something we've seen before in matches scheduled between Champions League knockout games. In that case, five corners from Alavés would be more than likely. The stats support this, and in my opinion, the odds offer clear value.

For Heidenheim — who’ve shown real improvement recently — this is an all-or-nothing match. They urgently need points in the relegation battle. Frankfurt are also under pressure to win and have been very efficient at home. Most likely scenario: Heidenheim start bravely but get caught cold by clinical Frankfurt for the 1-0. After that, with the second leg vs. Tottenham in the Europa League coming up, Frankfurt may try to conserve energy while Heidenheim push forward. If it plays out like that, Heidenheim could even clear the highest corner line.

With Lyon, it’s often a close call away from home when it comes to corner counts. In this case, even though Auxerre’s numbers aren’t overly convincing, we expect the home side to rack up more corners. Lyon could be tired after their Europa League game on Thursday, with the second leg just around the corner. A draw would likely be acceptable for them. If Auxerre take the lead, they’re fresh and in form — and could take full control of the game. At this price, I’ve got to give it a go.

Here I'm going for a higher odds pick. Aston Villa are in the midst of Champions League stress, which means they might not only rotate but also look to conserve energy if they take the lead. Southampton are quite vulnerable, so a halftime lead for the visitors wouldn’t be surprising. Most likely, the Saints will push hard afterward, while Villa will try to defend their lead as efficiently as possible. More corners for the home side by the end of the match wouldn’t surprise me

Both teams have just come through a demanding midweek schedule and also have important Champions League matches coming up. Because of that, I don’t expect a high tempo with lots of goal chances and corners. Regardless of the stats, I’m expecting a maximum of 8 corners in this match.

To keep their slim hopes of reaching the top 6 alive, Sheffield Wednesday must win every remaining game in the Championship. As a result, they'll be fully focused on going for the win here. Oxford, on the other hand, could settle for a draw. The hosts have not been in good form recently, so an early and clear lead seems unlikely. Stats and circumstances clearly point towards a high number of corners from Sheffield.

Hannover wins slightly more corners at home than the league average. Elversberg concedes significantly more corners away from home compared to the league average. Moreover, Hannover needs to play for a win here to keep their promotion hopes alive. Elversberg is compact on the road, and an away lead is definitely not out of the question. It is very likely that Hannover will press forward for long periods, making at least six corners for the hosts a very realistic outcome.